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<blockquote data-quote="El Guapo" data-source="post: 1034114" data-attributes="member: 5830"><p>On my way back from buying groceries tonight, I started to think about when Packers GMs move up in the draft. You pay a premium by bundling lower and/or future picks in order to draft somebody that you <em><u>really</u></em> feel is worth the premium.</p><p></p><p>Below is a list of players drafted by Ted Thompson (2005-2017) and Brian Gutekunst (2018-current). TT was vindicated on 3 of 9 occasions - Clay Matthews, Morgan Burnett, and Casey Hayward. Batting 33% generally in the draft is below expectations. One would think that you move up because you are convinced that these players will succeed. I would think that the success rate should be north of 50% and closer to 75%...otherwise it's just not worth the premium price.</p><p></p><p>Gutekunst has moved up in the draft seven times. However, we clearly have no clue yet how his two 2024 picks will turn out. So in the five times prior, he was succesfull either 2 or 3 times depending on how you view Darnell Savage. He was a 5yr starter out of the gate. However, he never got a second contract from Green Bay and was allowed to leave in FA. One could argue that for the premium we paid to move up (our 30th pick and two 4th rounders to move up to the 21st pick) was not justified in the end when we only got five years of average play.</p><p></p><p>Either way, Gutekunst is batting somewhere in the 40%-60% range. That's better than Thompson but it still makes you question if it is ever a good move to move up in the draft to get "your guy."</p><p></p><p><strong>Ted Thompson</strong></p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">2008</p> </td><td>Jeremy Thompson - DE</td><td>4th round</td><td>Failure</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">2009</p> </td><td>Clay Matthews - DE</td><td>1st round</td><td>Success</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">2010</p> </td><td>Morgan Burnett - S</td><td>3rd round</td><td>Success</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">2012</p> </td><td>Jerel Worthy - DT</td><td>2nd round</td><td>Failure</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">2012</p> </td><td>Casey Hayward - CB</td><td>2nd round</td><td>Success - went on to be a good CB for San Diego</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">2012</p> </td><td>Terrell Manning - LB</td><td>5th round</td><td>Failure</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">2013</p> </td><td>Johnathan Franklin - RB</td><td>4th round</td><td>Failure</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">2015</p> </td><td>Brett Hundley - QB</td><td>5th round</td><td>Failure</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">2016</p> </td><td>Jason Spriggs - OL</td><td>2nd round</td><td>Failure</td></tr></table><p></p><p><strong>Brian Gutekunst</strong></p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">2018</p> </td><td>Oren Burks - LB</td><td>3rd round</td><td>Failure</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">2019</p> </td><td>Darnell Savage - S</td><td>1st round</td><td>Partial Failure/Success - picked up 5th year option but let him go without a second contract</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">2020</p> </td><td>Jordan Love - QB</td><td>1st round</td><td>Success</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">2021</p> </td><td>Amari Rodgers - WR</td><td>3rd round</td><td>Failure</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">2022</p> </td><td>Christian Watson - WR</td><td>2nd round</td><td>Success</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">2024</p> </td><td>Evan Williams - S</td><td>4th round</td><td>???</td></tr><tr><td><p style="text-align: right">2024</p> </td><td>Jacob Monk - G</td><td>5th round</td><td>???</td></tr></table></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="El Guapo, post: 1034114, member: 5830"] On my way back from buying groceries tonight, I started to think about when Packers GMs move up in the draft. You pay a premium by bundling lower and/or future picks in order to draft somebody that you [I][U]really[/U][/I] feel is worth the premium. Below is a list of players drafted by Ted Thompson (2005-2017) and Brian Gutekunst (2018-current). TT was vindicated on 3 of 9 occasions - Clay Matthews, Morgan Burnett, and Casey Hayward. Batting 33% generally in the draft is below expectations. One would think that you move up because you are convinced that these players will succeed. I would think that the success rate should be north of 50% and closer to 75%...otherwise it's just not worth the premium price. Gutekunst has moved up in the draft seven times. However, we clearly have no clue yet how his two 2024 picks will turn out. So in the five times prior, he was succesfull either 2 or 3 times depending on how you view Darnell Savage. He was a 5yr starter out of the gate. However, he never got a second contract from Green Bay and was allowed to leave in FA. One could argue that for the premium we paid to move up (our 30th pick and two 4th rounders to move up to the 21st pick) was not justified in the end when we only got five years of average play. Either way, Gutekunst is batting somewhere in the 40%-60% range. That's better than Thompson but it still makes you question if it is ever a good move to move up in the draft to get "your guy." [B]Ted Thompson[/B] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]2008[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Jeremy Thompson - DE[/TD] [TD]4th round[/TD] [TD]Failure[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]2009[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Clay Matthews - DE[/TD] [TD]1st round[/TD] [TD]Success[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]2010[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Morgan Burnett - S[/TD] [TD]3rd round[/TD] [TD]Success[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]2012[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Jerel Worthy - DT[/TD] [TD]2nd round[/TD] [TD]Failure[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]2012[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Casey Hayward - CB[/TD] [TD]2nd round[/TD] [TD]Success - went on to be a good CB for San Diego[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]2012[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Terrell Manning - LB[/TD] [TD]5th round[/TD] [TD]Failure[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]2013[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Johnathan Franklin - RB[/TD] [TD]4th round[/TD] [TD]Failure[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]2015[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Brett Hundley - QB[/TD] [TD]5th round[/TD] [TD]Failure[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]2016[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Jason Spriggs - OL[/TD] [TD]2nd round[/TD] [TD]Failure[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [B]Brian Gutekunst[/B] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]2018[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Oren Burks - LB[/TD] [TD]3rd round[/TD] [TD]Failure[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]2019[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Darnell Savage - S[/TD] [TD]1st round[/TD] [TD]Partial Failure/Success - picked up 5th year option but let him go without a second contract[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]2020[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Jordan Love - QB[/TD] [TD]1st round[/TD] [TD]Success[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]2021[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Amari Rodgers - WR[/TD] [TD]3rd round[/TD] [TD]Failure[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]2022[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Christian Watson - WR[/TD] [TD]2nd round[/TD] [TD]Success[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]2024[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Evan Williams - S[/TD] [TD]4th round[/TD] [TD]???[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][RIGHT]2024[/RIGHT][/TD] [TD]Jacob Monk - G[/TD] [TD]5th round[/TD] [TD]???[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/QUOTE]
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