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<blockquote data-quote="Voyageur" data-source="post: 1032241" data-attributes="member: 17953"><p>I've always believed that NFL teams that are winners year after year have a better sense of how they draft then who they draft. I say this because I've watched teams like the Patriots draft guys that make you scratch your head and ask why, but then they kept on winning.</p><p></p><p>Of course a lot of that had to do with Brady at QB, but he wasn't alone on the field, and they also had to play decent defense. They did a lot of things right.</p><p></p><p>I was curious about it over ten years ago, and decided I'd do the best evaluation of their roster I could based on the information I could gather. Then I plotted out what I thought would be the direction they took their draft. Not based on best player available, but based on need, combined with potential upgrade at a position, or whether or not there was what I thought was need for better back up, or in some cases even picks that were project players that needed two or three years to start to reach potential. </p><p></p><p>Although my results, as to figuring out which players would be picked was horrible, I found that need was the key to their picks, and they continuously used a "progression theory," where the players they were taking weren't usually projected as instant starters, but were players that could be groomed, to fill that role, after they became more attuned to the NFL game. It was how they continued to build internally, through the draft. It also kept their salaries down, so when they need to make a splash, by bringing in a free agent, they had the cap room to make it happen. It also created an environment where players nearing the end of their career, who wanted that ring, knew they had their best shot with the Pats, and would often take less than elsewhere, because the quest was more important than the money.</p><p></p><p>As for that last part, think of Randy Moss, and what he did with the Patriots, as kind of a "hired gun" at the end of his career.</p><p></p><p>Teams always say it. "Next man up." Yet, most NFL teams don't really build on that philosophy. Coaches and GMs feel too much pressure to succeed now, and don't feel the luxury to build a team for the long term. </p><p></p><p>Drafting Love was the foresight that the Patriots use. Actually, so was drafting Rodgers. They knew they weren't plug and play players, but needed time to learn the game at the NFL level. Wise decisions. Both succeeded because they weren't thrown to the wolves, and tore apart before the learned how to fit their skills into the NFL game.</p><p></p><p>Rashan Gary is another prime example. In his first year, and even into his second, people were screaming about what a horrible pick he was. He was a "next man up" player and needed to learn how he fit into the scheme of things on the defense. It isn't always instantaneous. It can take some time.</p><p></p><p>So, when I sit down, and try to analyze a draft, I don't even look at the names of the players that will probably be available when the Packers turn comes up. That's secondary. What I look at first is what I perceive as their strengths and weaknesses, and the depth they have at a position before the draft even starts. Then I pretty much believe I know where the worst weaknesses are, and need instant help. I also then have a little better understanding about where they can afford to put guys on the roster, and give them room to grow into the job, so they can take their rightful turn in the starting lineup. </p><p></p><p>As far as making trades? I'm rarely interested in seeing the Packers move up, but I have to say that I was pleasantly surprised at the Packers move that netted Love. You can talk about wasted picks all you want, but getting him like they did was almost genius. The guy could end up being a decade plus player at QB for the Packers, and when you figure we've only had 3 actual starting QBs in nearly 30 years already, that's a truly amazing feat. </p><p></p><p>The growth of the Packers is what I envision most. I see them making lots of strides this year, with a multitude of picks, and I think that next year will be more filling the role of "next man up," so they can start to be one of the top teams in the league for a decade or more. We just need to be patient, and don't get too excited when they don't grab the big name stars out there, opting for a guy that's less polished, but has a higher level he can reach. This is how you build teams, in my book.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Voyageur, post: 1032241, member: 17953"] I've always believed that NFL teams that are winners year after year have a better sense of how they draft then who they draft. I say this because I've watched teams like the Patriots draft guys that make you scratch your head and ask why, but then they kept on winning. Of course a lot of that had to do with Brady at QB, but he wasn't alone on the field, and they also had to play decent defense. They did a lot of things right. I was curious about it over ten years ago, and decided I'd do the best evaluation of their roster I could based on the information I could gather. Then I plotted out what I thought would be the direction they took their draft. Not based on best player available, but based on need, combined with potential upgrade at a position, or whether or not there was what I thought was need for better back up, or in some cases even picks that were project players that needed two or three years to start to reach potential. Although my results, as to figuring out which players would be picked was horrible, I found that need was the key to their picks, and they continuously used a "progression theory," where the players they were taking weren't usually projected as instant starters, but were players that could be groomed, to fill that role, after they became more attuned to the NFL game. It was how they continued to build internally, through the draft. It also kept their salaries down, so when they need to make a splash, by bringing in a free agent, they had the cap room to make it happen. It also created an environment where players nearing the end of their career, who wanted that ring, knew they had their best shot with the Pats, and would often take less than elsewhere, because the quest was more important than the money. As for that last part, think of Randy Moss, and what he did with the Patriots, as kind of a "hired gun" at the end of his career. Teams always say it. "Next man up." Yet, most NFL teams don't really build on that philosophy. Coaches and GMs feel too much pressure to succeed now, and don't feel the luxury to build a team for the long term. Drafting Love was the foresight that the Patriots use. Actually, so was drafting Rodgers. They knew they weren't plug and play players, but needed time to learn the game at the NFL level. Wise decisions. Both succeeded because they weren't thrown to the wolves, and tore apart before the learned how to fit their skills into the NFL game. Rashan Gary is another prime example. In his first year, and even into his second, people were screaming about what a horrible pick he was. He was a "next man up" player and needed to learn how he fit into the scheme of things on the defense. It isn't always instantaneous. It can take some time. So, when I sit down, and try to analyze a draft, I don't even look at the names of the players that will probably be available when the Packers turn comes up. That's secondary. What I look at first is what I perceive as their strengths and weaknesses, and the depth they have at a position before the draft even starts. Then I pretty much believe I know where the worst weaknesses are, and need instant help. I also then have a little better understanding about where they can afford to put guys on the roster, and give them room to grow into the job, so they can take their rightful turn in the starting lineup. As far as making trades? I'm rarely interested in seeing the Packers move up, but I have to say that I was pleasantly surprised at the Packers move that netted Love. You can talk about wasted picks all you want, but getting him like they did was almost genius. The guy could end up being a decade plus player at QB for the Packers, and when you figure we've only had 3 actual starting QBs in nearly 30 years already, that's a truly amazing feat. The growth of the Packers is what I envision most. I see them making lots of strides this year, with a multitude of picks, and I think that next year will be more filling the role of "next man up," so they can start to be one of the top teams in the league for a decade or more. We just need to be patient, and don't get too excited when they don't grab the big name stars out there, opting for a guy that's less polished, but has a higher level he can reach. This is how you build teams, in my book. [/QUOTE]
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