A Jordan Love Contract

[Heyjoe4]

This is just my opinion, but I’d prefer an offer that is good for both sides. The Bengals are NOT exactly the model of success (not implying you said that just making a point).
I’d give Jordan a long term. Give him a 4.5 year guaranteed (5th season contract out) but at a slightly lower per year.
6yr/$300mil $225guar

The idea to remember is that as the years pass in the distant the value increases. That 4th year at $50mil becomes like $40mil in today’s impact. Those contracts get reworked before year 5 anyway. We saw this with Pat

Those are good numbers. I don't think the guaranteed money should be that high. Otherwise it looks right. And yes indeed, these contracts change as NFL profits, and the cap, keep going up, up, up.

 

[OldSchool101]

Those are good numbers. I don't think the guaranteed money should be that high. Otherwise it looks right. And yes indeed, these contracts change as NFL profits, and the cap, keep going up, up, up.

I know it. Keep in mind my idea is to go longer term there in that example.

Its likely they do a slightly shorter 4-5 year extension and in that 70-75% guar.

Would shock me to see a 5X$250mil ~$185. Keep in mind that extension keeps him locked up on the cheap this year.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I know it. Keep in mind my idea is to go longer term there in that example.

Its likely they do a slightly shorter 4-5 year extension and in that 70-75% guar.

Would shock me to see a 5X$250mil ~$185. Keep in mind that extension keeps him locked up on the cheap this year.

I don't follow. If he does an extension it would really be a new contract. He won't play this year for $20 mil when he has, say a 5 year, $250 mil offer.

Unless they do nothing with Love, he's gonna get paid a lot more starting this year. That's not really an extension. The two year contract he's playing on will be voided and a new contract will be put in place.

 

[Voyageur]

As much as I'd like to know what will happen with the Love contract, I haven't got a clue to be honest. I think it will be something that looks really different compared to most. Maybe a lower first year, but guarantees throughout, and larger escalations to year 2 , 3, and 4. All intent on keeping money on the table to fill the additional roster needs between this year and next.

Why do I say this? Because I believe that windows to a Super Bowl victory go through 3 to 5 year cycles, with rebuilds. Players who are marginal, by league standards, are for some reason looked at as better than what they are, and jump ship as FAs during those cycles, and you can't afford to match the payout they're going to get.

 

[Thirteen Below]

I find it best to not try and make sense of these deals. After what Cleveland gave up for serial-sex-offender Watson, the train came off the rails.

It's worth keeping in mind that the agent who got that truckload of money for Watson is also Love's agent. He's widely considered the best agent in the NFL.

I think Jordan's getting paid.

 

[Heyjoe4]

As much as I'd like to know what will happen with the Love contract, I haven't got a clue to be honest. I think it will be something that looks really different compared to most. Maybe a lower first year, but guarantees throughout, and larger escalations to year 2 , 3, and 4. All intent on keeping money on the table to fill the additional roster needs between this year and next.

Why do I say this? Because I believe that windows to a Super Bowl victory go through 3 to 5 year cycles, with rebuilds. Players who are marginal, by league standards, are for some reason looked at as better than what they are, and jump ship as FAs during those cycles, and you can't afford to match the payout they're going to get.

Love's deal will look like all the other elite QB deals. A player and his agent aren't going to cut a deal that makes it easier for the GM to keep filling other roster positions, and I have no idea how that would work anyway.

The contract that messes everything up is Goff's. And it doesn't really mess things up, it just means Love will get more. People are wringing their hands because Love's body of great play consists of 10 games. But I think that solid play continues and he'll get his deal done in short order.

It's simple, really. Great QB play is expensive, and that makes sense considering how important the position is to winning.

 

[Heyjoe4]

It's worth keeping in mind that the agent who got that truckload of money for Watson is also Love's agent. He's widely considered the best agent in the NFL.

I think Jordan's getting paid.

You're right. After the contract Detroit just gave Goff, Love will get a v good deal. Simple as that.

Assuming the WRs and TEs continue to improve, there will be a point where the Packers can't pay everyone. That's just life in the NFL. Every team loses players to FA. On the bright side, it's indicative of good drafting and player development.

 

[Pkrjones]

I don't follow. If he does an extension it would really be a new contract. He won't play this year for $20 mil when he has, say a 5 year, $250 mil offer.

Unless they do nothing with Love, he's gonna get paid a lot more starting this year. That's not really an extension. The two year contract he's playing on will be voided and a new contract will be put in place.

Love has a '24 base salary of $10.5mil + other bonus $ involved in the cap hit. With an extension, I believe, GB could reduce his base to $1.25mil (give or take a few $'s) after signing an extension which would include a Signing bonus of (for example only) $100mil. 2024 would be base of $1.25mil + remaining salary converted to a bonus of $9-$11mil (possibly spread out for next 6 yrs?) and immediately banking his $100mil SB which is spread over '25-'29 seasons. I'm not a creative-cap finnagler but GB will extend Love AND create cap space for '24.

 

[Thirteen Below]

You're right. After the contract Detroit just gave Goff, Love will get a v good deal. Simple as that.

Jared Goff is this year's Mac Jones, at least in terms of the effect they have on the market. I expected Prescott to be the guy who set the market, but I think Goff will be the one whom has the real impact.

Assuming the WRs and TEs continue to improve, there will be a point where the Packers can't pay everyone. That's just life in the NFL. Every team loses players to FA. On the bright side, it's indicative of good drafting and player development.

The price you pay for good scouting and coaching. As long as we can continue to do those things at this level, and as long as Gute can keep assembling 10.6 picks each year (which has been his average), we should be able to keep the flow of talent steadily coming in to replace the free agents we lose. Especially given the comp picks we'll get every season as these talented and well-developed young players cycle out through free agency.

It's quite a system Gutekunst has been quietly developing here in these past few years.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Love has a '24 base salary of $10.5mil + other bonus $ involved in the cap hit. With an extension, I believe, GB could reduce his base to $1.25mil (give or take a few $'s) after signing an extension which would include a Signing bonus of (for example only) $100mil. 2024 would be base of $1.25mil + remaining salary converted to a bonus of $9-$11mil (possibly spread out for next 6 yrs?) and immediately banking his $100mil SB which is spread over '25-'29 seasons. I'm not a creative-cap finnagler but GB will extend Love AND create cap space for '24.

Isn't that wild how guys are extended for a lot more money and the cap hit gets reduced? In the end, it all has to be dealt with in the form of dead money. But hey, the goal is to win a SB, and if that saddles the team with some lean years, so be it. Look at the Rams. I'd say it's worth it to get a Lombardi.

The Packers aren't in the Rams' situation because they (hopefully) have their franchise QB in house. Teams rise and fall as this all plays out, but the goal is the same - be the last team standing come February. Not an easy task.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Jared Goff is this year's Mac Jones, at least in terms of the effect they have on the market. I expected Prescott to be the guy who set the market, but I think Goff will be the one whom has the real impact.



The price you pay for good scouting and coaching. As long as we can continue to do those things at this level, and as long as Gute can keep assembling 10.6 picks each year (which has been his average), we should be able to keep the flow of talent steadily coming in to replace the free agents we lose. Especially given the comp picks we'll get every season as these talented and well-developed young players cycle out through free agency.

It's quite a system Gutekunst has been quietly developing here in these past few years.

Still amazes me that Goff got a new lease on life with the trade to Detroit. In fairness he has played well as a Lion. He's getting a lot more than I think he's worth, but the Lions have most of the other pieces in place, so pay the man.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Still amazes me that Goff got a new lease on life with the trade to Detroit. In fairness he has played well as a Lion. He's getting a lot more than I think he's worth, but the Lions have most of the other pieces in place, so pay the man.

I think they may wish they still had some of that Goff money to spend when it comes time to pay some of those pieces a year or two down the road.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I think they may wish they still had some of that Goff money to spend when it comes time to pay some of those pieces a year or two down the road.

Well, it's pay Goff or lose him if his level of play continues. I'm guessing the Lions had no choice. Pretty hard to win without a top QB.

As for the rest of the roster, and as I said earlier, losing guys to FA is the price of drafting well. Teams can't keep all their players, especially if they draft well. Any other position on the roster is easier to fill than QB.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Well, it's pay Goff or lose him if his level of play continues. I'm guessing the Lions had no choice. Pretty hard to win without a top QB.

As for the rest of the roster, and as I said earlier, losing guys to FA is the price of drafting well. Teams can't keep all their players, especially if they draft well. Any other position on the roster is easier to fill than QB.

It's a little unsettling to think of how strong the NFC North is going to be for the next several years, with 4 excellent quarterbacks. There are probably only 2 divisions in the NFL who are going to be stacked deeper at the QB position.

Even Chicago is probably going to have the best QB they've had in decades, and possibly in the entire history of their franchise (depending on how badly they screw it up). 2 of the 4 QBs are #1 overall picks, Love is outplaying a boatload of guys who were #1, and the Vikings have a #7 overall pick. Goff is the oldest one at 28, and as good as he is, he may be the weakest QB in the division by 2025.

Gone are the days when we can fatten up on a weak division (.688 winning percentage since 1994, average W/L 4.2-1.6) and coast to #1 or #2 seed. Every division game for the next 5 years or more just got significantly tougher, and emerging as the top team is going to be a dogfight.

 

[sschind]

Love has a '24 base salary of $10.5mil + other bonus $ involved in the cap hit. With an extension, I believe, GB could reduce his base to $1.25mil (give or take a few $'s) after signing an extension which would include a Signing bonus of (for example only) $100mil. 2024 would be base of $1.25mil + remaining salary converted to a bonus of $9-$11mil (possibly spread out for next 6 yrs?) and immediately banking his $100mil SB which is spread over '25-'29 seasons. I'm not a creative-cap finnagler but GB will extend Love AND create cap space for '24.

Not going to look at the numbers but if I am not mistaken the 5 years for the SB would start in 2024 even if it is an extension. That means the SB portion would be 20 million for 2024. I could be wrong though.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Not going to look at the numbers but if I am not mistaken the 5 years for the SB would start in 2024 even if it is an extension. That means the SB portion would be 20 million for 2024. I could be wrong though.

Hmm maybe I'm wrong about this. You and Old School are saying love will play for $20 mil in 2024 even with an extension/new contract.

I don't see why he would play without guaranteed money and a hefty signing bonus. Maybe he gets both and still plays 2024 for $20 mil. Anyone out there who can confirm or deny or just shed some light?

 

[tynimiller]

Hmm maybe I'm wrong about this. You and Old School are saying love will play for $20 mil in 2024 even with an extension/new contract.

I don't see why he would play without guaranteed money and a hefty signing bonus. Maybe he gets both and still plays 2024 for $20 mil. Anyone out there who can confirm or deny or just shed some light?

Is it possible? Absolutely, but I'd bet they squeeze some of the contract guarantee into 2024 even if it is structured to only add say $5M more...spreading the hit out is going to be a must however. I'd guess of our space we have or create the hit this year will be north of $30M. Some cuts of a few folks will make this very possible - like Royce Newman $3.1M, Rhyan $963K, Slaton (not a fan of this but...) $3.1M....there's an additional $7M if truly needed.

 

[Firethorn1001]

It's a little unsettling to think of how strong the NFC North is going to be for the next several years, with 4 excellent quarterbacks. There are probably only 2 divisions in the NFL who are going to be stacked deeper at the QB position.

Or it all goes sideways and we could be here next year wondering why the Lions and Packers overpaid and how the Bears and Vikings managed to screw up yet again.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Is it possible? Absolutely, but I'd bet they squeeze some of the contract guarantee into 2024 even if it is structured to only add say $5M more...spreading the hit out is going to be a must however. I'd guess of our space we have or create the hit this year will be north of $30M. Some cuts of a few folks will make this very possible - like Royce Newman $3.1M, Rhyan $963K, Slaton (not a fan of this but...) $3.1M....there's an additional $7M if truly needed.

Thanks Ty. I'm mixing up cap ramifications with how Love would view his comp. They can do an extension (and will) and give Love a nice bonus now and a pile of guaranteed money, and still "only" take a cap hit of $20 mil, the value of his existing contract.

But you're right, the Packers would try to move some of that cap hit into this year, another $5 mil, $10 mil, whatever. And they may use voidable years to keep the cap hit manageable for the next few years while the team is a legit contender.

 

[El Guapo]

Either Gute needs to offer that type of deal OR float something like a 2yr, $125mil fully guaranteed extension (thru '26) to give GB a possible "out". Can't see Love signing a 1 yr deal or 2 yr for any less $. Assuming Love continues ascending after that 2 yr deal he'll be looking at a 6yr, $375mil (or more!) in '27. Frightening amounts, but they're only getting more ridiculous.

We would all love the 1-2yr prove-it contract. The problem is that there are many other teams that also see Love's potential, and would swing big to get him if we are too timid. Therefore we have to offer a contract that is competitive with that theoretical market. Like buying a house, we need to submit a bid that ensures another bidder will not steal the house from underneath us.

 

[Heyjoe4]

We would all love the 1-2yr prove-it contract. The problem is that there are many other teams that also see Love's potential, and would swing big to get him if we are too timid. Therefore we have to offer a contract that is competitive with that theoretical market. Like buying a house, we need to submit a bid that ensures another bidder will not steal the house from underneath us.

Well said. The Packers have to take on what I think is an acceptable risk and sign Love to an extension. The chances of him living up to a new deal are better than his chances at failure. Just my opinion but the alternative is worse. And "prove-it" deals are for retreads, not franchise 25 y/o franchise QBs. Just pay him and move on.

 

[tynimiller]

I do believe at worst Jordan Love is an Alex Smith/Jared Goff level type QB - more than capable with a good team to go far and even push for a SB.

With that as my worst case - I'm fully willing to accept we are hitching our wagon to Love for good or bad MINIMUM of three seasons, likelihood of four.

And with that in mind I've come to the conclusion myself that I say Gute/Russ get a 6-10 year deal done.

Goff got $212M/4 years with $170M guaranteed.

Give Love $300M/6 years with $210M guaranteed (only the 4th QB ever to get over $200M guaranteed)

 

[El Guapo]

Give Love $300M/6 years with $210M guaranteed (only the 4th QB ever to get over $200M guaranteed)

I'm fine with that as long as I get my 1/2 percent commission

 

[Heyjoe4]

I do believe at worst Jordan Love is an Alex Smith/Jared Goff level type QB - more than capable with a good team to go far and even push for a SB.

With that as my worst case - I'm fully willing to accept we are hitching our wagon to Love for good or bad MINIMUM of three seasons, likelihood of four.

And with that in mind I've come to the conclusion myself that I say Gute/Russ get a 6-10 year deal done.

Goff got $212M/4 years with $170M guaranteed.

Give Love $300M/6 years with $210M guaranteed (only the 4th QB ever to get over $200M guaranteed)

That sounds about right. Not crazy about $200 mil guaranteed, but it's gonna have to be more than Goff. Also waiting to see what Tua T gets. That will reset the market. Although Tua T has been playing well for a lot longer and really should get a better deal.

Any contracts 4 years or longer are gonna get reworked anyway, hopefully.......